RBI Bulletin – October 2024

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its October 2024 bulletin, offering a comprehensive analysis of India’s economic landscape, highlighting key trends and challenges. Below is a summary of the main points:

Positive Trends:

• Global Resilience: The global economy showed resilience in the first half of 2024, with lower inflation boosting consumer spending. Many economies are enjoying stable growth as monetary policies ease.
• Strong Domestic Growth: India’s growth outlook remains positive, driven by robust domestic factors. Leading indicators suggest a resurgence in private investment, and consumer spending is expected to rise during the upcoming festive season.
• Formalization of MSMEs: A large number of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have formalized their operations through registration. Most of these MSMEs have banking ties, and many are paying employee salaries through bank accounts.
• Institutional Lending: Institutional sources, primarily banks, provide the majority of loans to MSMEs, underscoring the critical role of formal financial institutions in supporting these businesses.
• Government Support: RBI liquidity measures and government initiatives, such as the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS), have been instrumental in helping MSMEs recover from the pandemic’s impacts.
• Declining Cash Usage: Cash remains a significant payment mode in India, but its usage is steadily declining.
• ICT Sector Growth: The Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector’s contribution to economic output has grown considerably, with productivity in this sector generally outpacing non-ICT sectors.

Challenges:

• Slowing Growth Momentum: Some high-frequency indicators suggest a slowdown in growth during Q2 of 2024-25, partly due to excessive rainfall in August and September.
• Rising Inflation: Inflation spiked in September 2024, driven by a negative statistical base effect and rising food prices, after having stayed below target for two months.
• Structural Challenges for MSMEs: MSMEs continue to face structural issues, including high expenses related to electricity, rent, and debt servicing, which squeeze profit margins.
• Solow Paradox: While India initially avoided the Solow productivity paradox (where technological advances don’t lead to productivity gains), the phenomenon has surfaced in recent years, particularly post-Global Financial Crisis, aligning with global trends.

Policy Implications:

• Monetary Policy Transmission: RBI’s tightening of monetary policy since May 2022 has impacted financial markets, helping to anchor inflation expectations and reduce demand and headline inflation.
• Food Inflation Forecasting: Accurate forecasting of food inflation is crucial for overall inflation projections in India. High-frequency price and non-price data, combined with machine learning techniques, can enhance the accuracy of inflation nowcasting.
• AI in Banking: Indian banks are increasingly adopting AI to improve efficiency and service quality, with applications in areas like chatbots, predictive analysis, customer segmentation, risk assessment, and fraud detection. Public sector banks are catching up with private sector counterparts in AI adoption.
• Cash Usage Monitoring: Developing a reliable Cash Usage Indicator (CUI) can aid policymakers in refining currency management strategies as India moves toward a more digital economy.