Stock Watch Today: Nifty, Sensex & the Fed — What’s Moving Markets on 29 July 2026

BY ADMIN • FILED 29 Jul 2026, 8:46 AM

Nifty, Sensex & the Fed — What’s Moving Markets on 29 July 2026

Wednesday’s session opens under a bit of a cloud, honestly. Just when it looked like the worst of the Middle East scare was behind us, fighting flared up again overnight, oil jerked higher, Asian tech stocks got hit hard, and — as if that wasn’t enough — the Fed hands down its rate decision today. Traders I’ve been reading this morning keep using the word “unpredictable,” which isn’t something you hear about a Fed meeting very often. Here’s the rundown.

How we closed, and how we’re likely to open

Tuesday was an expiry-day session, and it showed — a lot of noise, not much direction. The Sensex slipped 69.86 points (0.09%) to close at 76,765.92, while the Nifty 50 eased 10.60 points (0.04%) to 23,985.35. Breadth wasn’t great either, with declining stocks outnumbering advances by a wide margin (1,539 up vs 2,543 down).

That said, it wasn’t really a “bad” day — it was more of a pause. Monday had already delivered a strong ~1% bounce that snapped a five-session losing run, and Tuesday was the market catching its breath, with IT stocks doing the heavy lifting while banks, FMCG, and energy dragged.

For today, GIFT Nifty is hinting at a soft, cautious start. Nothing dramatic, but the overnight escalation in the Middle East plus a rough night for Asian chip stocks isn’t the kind of backdrop that inspires confidence at the open. On the brighter side, European markets actually closed firm on Tuesday, so there’s at least some support out there for export-facing and IT names.

Chart check — where the Nifty stands

If you’re watching levels, the range to know is 23,700–23,800 on the downside and 24,300–24,600 on the upside. That lower band has held as support through recent sessions, and a break below it would probably invite fresh selling. On the resistance side, options data backs up the 24,300–24,600 zone too — that’s where the heaviest Call open interest is sitting, while the Puts are stacked around 23,500–23,800. Net-net, the tone is cautiously constructive, but given how much can happen globally in a single trading day right now, this isn’t the week to get complacent about levels.

Who moved the market Tuesday

Gainers:

TCS (+4.47%) — the standout of the day. A stronger-than-expected earnings print sent the whole IT pack higher, and the Nifty IT index ended up 3.2%, easily the best sector on the board.
Tech Mahindra (+3.82%) — rode the same IT wave as TCS.
Eternal (+4.23%) — one of the better large-cap movers, alongside smaller gains in Nestlé India and Cipla.

Losers:

Hindustan Unilever (-7.07%) — by far the biggest drag on the index. This looks like straightforward profit-booking after HUL had run up sharply in recent sessions.
NTPC (-1.96%) — energy names broadly struggled, with the Nifty Energy index down 1.7%.
ICICI Bank (-1.90%) — part of a wider pullback in financials; both Nifty Bank and Nifty PSU Bank ended in the red.

Worth a mention too: Coal India fell after missing earnings estimates, and a handful of mid- and small-caps — CG Power, HFCL, Godfrey Phillips — took some fairly sharp hits of 3-6%.

Oil, gold and bitcoin — the “risk mood” gauges

Crude oil is really the headline story right now. It had slid nearly 16% over three sessions as hopes grew for a US-Iran de-escalation — and then fighting broke out again overnight, wiping out a chunk of that relief. Brent jumped over 4% back toward $88 a barrel, and WTI climbed about 5% to top $83, after US forces reportedly intercepted an attempted Iranian strike on troops in the region. For India, this matters a lot — we import most of our oil, so every spike like this ripples straight into the rupee, inflation expectations, and OMC stocks.

Gold actually slipped, down about 1% to the $4,026-4,037/oz range, as the dollar firmed up ahead of the Fed decision. A bit counterintuitive given all the geopolitical stress, but that’s the Fed effect for you — uncertainty about rates is currently pulling harder on gold than the safe-haven bid is pushing it up. It’s still up over 21% from a year ago, for context.

Bitcoin opened around $63,700, down roughly 2.5% from Monday, with Ethereum off about 3.2% near $1,890. Crypto traders are bracing for volatility either way today — this is being called one of the toughest Fed meetings to call in recent memory.

What’s on the calendar today

The big one is the US Fed’s rate decision, wrapping up a two-day meeting. Normally you’d expect a hold to be a near-certainty this close to a meeting, but markets are currently pricing in something like a 35-36% chance of a surprise hike — an unusually high number that tells you how split opinion really is right now. Most economists still lean toward a hold today with a hike more likely in September, but nobody’s saying it with much conviction.

On the RBI side — no meeting today. The central bank last met in June, held the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance, and isn’t due back at the table again just yet.

Also on deck: US crude oil inventory data, which given how jumpy oil already is, could add more fuel (pun intended) to the volatility. If the Fed does surprise on the hawkish side, expect the dollar to strengthen further, gold and risk assets to come under pressure, and possibly some FII outflow pressure on Indian equities. A hold, on the other hand, could trigger a bit of a relief rally globally.

IPO corner — GMP watch

The primary market’s staying busy — six mainboard/SME IPOs are currently open, with an average grey market premium of around +28%. The one getting the most attention right now is Poojaa Precision Engineering, commanding a GMP near +99.7%.

Just the usual caveat here: GMP is an unofficial number, not SEBI-regulated, and it reflects sentiment at a moment in time — not a promise of what happens on listing day. Treat it as one data point among many, not a signal to bet the house on.

Around the world

Indian market: Sensex and Nifty basically went nowhere on expiry day, with IT strength offsetting weakness elsewhere. Today’s setup looks cautious given the overnight escalation abroad.

US market: The Dow actually had a solid day, up 1.03% (537 points) to close at 52,747.32 — its third straight gain. The S&P 500 was up a more modest 0.21% to 7,428.78, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.22% to 24,876.91 as a semiconductor sell-off (SK Hynix down nearly 15%, Samsung Electronics down over 13%) spread out of Asia. US futures have since turned lower overnight on the Middle East news, and attention now shifts fully to the Fed plus a heavy week of Big Tech earnings — Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft all report soon.

European market: A calmer picture here — FTSE 100 and CAC 40 both closed higher Tuesday, and the broader Stoxx 600 and EU50 indices were in the green too, helped by strong moves in names like Unilever and Nemetschek. Asia had a much rougher night, with the Nikkei down almost 4% and South Korea’s Kospi plunging over 10% on the chip stock rout — something Indian IT and tech-linked names should keep half an eye on today.

The economy backdrop

The Fed is walking a tightrope right now under Chair Kevin Warsh, with genuinely divided opinion on whether today brings a hold or a surprise hike.
RBI remains on hold at 5.25%, comfortable with a 6.9% GDP growth projection but watching crude prices, geopolitics and the monsoon closely.
Crude oil has been on a wild ride this week — down sharply, then back up on fresh conflict — and remains the single biggest wildcard for Indian inflation and the rupee right now.
The dollar index is sitting near a four-week high around 101.6 heading into the Fed call, which is weighing on gold and emerging-market currencies, rupee included.

So, what’s the takeaway?

It’s a lot of moving parts converging at once — Middle East tensions flaring back up, oil swinging wildly, a Fed decision nobody’s fully confident about, and a tech sell-off spreading out of Asia. I’d expect a cautious, headline-sensitive session on Dalal Street today. IT and export names might hold up a bit better if the rupee weakens, while OMC, aviation, and rate-sensitive banking and auto stocks are probably the ones to watch most closely as the day unfolds.

This post is for information only, not investment advice. Numbers reflect the latest available data at the time of writing and can shift quickly once markets open — always check live prices and speak to a registered advisor before acting on anything here.